Syria briefing comes to Hanassi

One of the most popular and best-attended events at Beit Knesset Hanassi is the monthly meeting of the men’s Rosh Chodesh club, which meets to hear specially selected speaker on a matter of contemporary Israeli political, religious or cultural interest. Our member and regular Hanassi Blog contributor Paul Bloom, who was at the club’s most recent event, sent us the following report.

This past Thursday, the Rosh Chodesh group had the privilege of hosting Dr Jonathan Spyer, a distinguished British-Israeli analyst, journalist, and writer specializing in Middle Eastern affairs. His presentation focused primarily on the evolving situation in Syria.

Dr Spyer began by outlining the background of the recent Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s tenuous grip on power. Despite over a decade of weakness and instability, Assad managed to remain in control largely due to the backing of Russia and Iran. However, this support has been significantly undermined in recent times: Russia is now fully preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, and Hezbollah—Iran’s proxy in the region—has been seriously weakened.

Sensing an opportunity, the opposition forces led by Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, better known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Julani, have reasserted themselves. Al-Julani, once a known terrorist figure, has rebranded himself in a Western-friendly image—donning a suit and speaking the language of diplomacy in an effort to gain international legitimacy. However, Israel remains deeply skeptical of his transformation and intentions. This is reflected in Israel’s ongoing and often forceful responses to any developments in Syria that could impact Israeli security, even indirectly.

One notable shift in Syrian policy has been its effort to halt the flow of Iranian weapons and drugs into Lebanon. Syria appears to be positioning itself for eventual sanctions relief, with the hope of establishing a more stable and functional government. However, the current leadership lacks the institutional experience to carry this out. Turkey has stepped in to offer assistance in this rebuilding process, which raises additional concerns for Israel. Turkey remains a strong supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood and is not considered a reliable ally by Israel. The possibility that Turkey could use Syria as a strategic proxy is viewed as a potential threat.

Dr Spyer also highlighted the unique roles of the Kurdish and Druze communities within Syria. These groups have shown consistent support for Israel and, in many ways, function autonomously within Syria. Whether their pro-Israel stance can be maintained, and whether this region could become another active front, remains an open question.

In the latter part of his presentation, Dr Spyer addressed concerns regarding U.S. policy toward Israel, particularly under the second Trump administration. He acknowledged that President Trump’s first term was historic in its support for Israel—relocating the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, brokering the Abraham Accords, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and all of Jerusalem, and endorsing Israeli communities in Yehuda and Shomron. Nevertheless, Dr Spyer expressed serious concerns about the current direction of Trump’s political circle. He pointed to the growing influence of the MAGA wing of the Republican Party, particularly Vice President pick J.D. Vance and Donald Trump Jr., both strong proponents of the “America First” agenda. Their foreign policy stance may not align with Israel’s interests. Even long-time Israel supporter Senator Marco Rubio, who may have presidential ambitions, could be swayed by these shifting currents.

Dr Spyer also warned that President Trump lacks the diplomatic experience required for the complexities of Middle East negotiations. Real estate deals in New York do not equate to successful foreign policy in a volatile region. Of particular concern are Trump’s approaches to the Gaza conflict, the Iran nuclear issue, and the continued American military presence in Syria—all of which could pose serious risks to Israel if mishandled.

As always, we pray that Hashem will guide the leadership of the United States to maintain a steadfast, pro-Israel stance, and that Israel’s own leaders will continue to act wisely and courageously, prioritizing the nation’s best interests, regardless of external pressures.